ORGANISATION

We describe below how our activities are organised. Integrated Gas, Upstream and Downstream focus on our seven strategic themes (see “Strategy and outlook” on page 10). Our Projects & Technology organisation manages the delivery of Shell’s major projects and drives research and innovation to develop new technology solutions.

Integrated Gas (including NEW ENERGIES)

This organisation covers two strategic themes: Integrated Gas, which is a cash engine; and New Energies, which is an emerging opportunity.

Integrated Gas manages LNG activities and the conversion of natural gas into GTL fuels and other products. It includes natural gas exploration and extraction, and the operation of upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to market. It markets and trades natural gas, LNG, electricity and carbon-emission rights and also markets and sells LNG as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels.

In New Energies, we are exploring emerging opportunities and investing in those where we believe sufficient commercial value is available. We focus on new fuels for transport, such as advanced biofuels, hydrogen and charging for battery-electric vehicles; and power, including from low-carbon sources such as wind and solar as well as natural gas.

Upstream

Our Upstream organisation covers three strategic themes: Conventional Oil and Gas, which is a cash engine; Deep water, which is a growth priority; and Shales, which is an emerging opportunity.

It manages the exploration for and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also markets and transports oil and gas, and operates infrastructure necessary to deliver them to market.

Downstream

Our Downstream organisation comprises two strategic themes: Oil Products, which is a cash engine; and Chemicals, which is a growth priority.

It manages different Oil Products and Chemicals activities as part of an integrated value chain, that trades and refines crude oil, and other feedstocks into a range of products which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial and transport use. The products we sell include gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, biofuel, lubricants, bitumen and sulphur. In addition, we produce and sell petrochemicals for industrial use worldwide. Our Downstream organisation also manages Oil Sands activities (the extraction of bitumen from mined oil sands and its conversion into synthetic crude oil).

Projects & Technology

Our Projects & Technology organisation manages the delivery of our major projects and drives research and innovation to develop new technology solutions. It provides technical services and technology capability for our Integrated Gas, Upstream and Downstream activities. It is also responsible for providing functional leadership across Shell in the areas of safety and environment, contracting and procurement, wells activities and greenhouse gas management.

Our future hydrocarbon production depends on the delivery of large and integrated projects (see “Risk factors” on page 15). Systematic management of

life-cycle technical and non-technical risks is in place for each opportunity, with assurance and control activities embedded throughout the project life cycle. We focus on the cost-effective delivery of projects through commercial agreements, supply-chain management, and construction and engineering productivity through effective planning and simplification of delivery processes. Development of our employees’ project management competencies is underpinned by project principles, standards and processes. A dedicated competence framework, training, standards and processes exist for various technical disciplines. In addition, we provide governance support for our non-Shell-operated ventures or projects.

SEGMENTAL REPORTING

Our reporting segments are Integrated Gas, Upstream, Downstream and Corporate. Upstream combines the operating segments Upstream (managed by our Upstream organisation) and Oil Sands (managed by our Downstream organisation), which have similar economic characteristics. Integrated Gas, Upstream and Downstream include their respective elements of our Projects & Technology organisation. The Corporate segment comprises our holdings and treasury organisation, self-insurance activities, and headquarters and central functions. See Note 4 to the “Consolidated Financial Statements” on pages 181-184.

TECHNOLOGY aND INNOVATION

Technology and innovation are essential to our efforts to meet the world’s energy needs in a competitive way. If we do not develop the right technology, do not have access to it or do not deploy it effectively, this could have a material adverse effect on the delivery of our strategy and our licence to operate (see “Risk factors” on pages 17-18). We continuously look for technologies and innovations of potential relevance to our business. Our Chief Technology Officer oversees the development and deployment of new and differentiating technologies and innovations across Shell, seeking to align business and technology requirements throughout our technology maturation process.

In 2018, research and development expenses were $986 million, compared with $922 million in 2017, and $1,014 million in 2016. Our main technology centres are in India, the Netherlands and the USA, with other centres in Brazil, China, Germany, Oman and Qatar. A strong patent portfolio underlies the technology that we employ in our various businesses. In total, we have around 10,325 granted patents and pending patent applications.

The risks discussed below could have a material adverse effect separately, or in combination, on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition. Accordingly, investors should carefully consider these risks.

Measures that we use to manage or mitigate our various risks are set out in the relevant sections of this Report, indicated by way of cross references under each risk factor. The Board’s responsibility for identifying, evaluating and managing our significant risks is discussed in “Corporate governance” on pages 103-104.

We are exposed to fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals.

The prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals are affected by supply and demand, both globally and regionally. Government actions may also affect the prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals.  For example, if a government were to ban diesel automobiles from entering a city or provide tax deductions for the purchase of renewable automobiles. Moreover, prices for oil and gas can move independently of each other. Factors that influence supply and demand include operational issues, natural disasters, weather, political instability, conflicts, economic conditions and actions by major oil and gas producing countries. Additionally, in a low oil and gas price environment, we would generate less revenue from our Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses, and, as a result, parts of those businesses could become less profitable, or could incur losses. Additionally, low oil and gas prices have resulted, and could continue to result, in the debooking of proved oil or gas reserves, if they become uneconomic in this type of price environment. Prolonged periods of low oil and gas prices, or rising costs, have resulted and could continue to result in projects being delayed or cancelled. In addition, assets have been impaired in the past, and there could be impairments in the future. Low oil and gas prices could also affect our ability to maintain our long-term capital investment programme and dividend payments. Prolonged periods of low oil and gas prices could adversely affect the financial, fiscal, legal, political and social stability of countries that rely significantly on oil and gas revenue. In a high oil and gas price environment, we could experience sharp increases in costs, and, under some production-sharing contracts, our entitlement to proved reserves would be reduced. Higher prices could also reduce demand for our products, which could result in lower profitability, particularly in our Downstream business. Accordingly, price fluctuations could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Market overview” on page 21.

Our ability to deliver competitive returns and pursue commercial opportunities depends in part on the accuracy of our price assumptions.

We use a range of oil and gas price assumptions, which we review on a periodic basis, to evaluate projects and commercial opportunities. If our assumptions prove to be incorrect, it could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Market overview” on page 22.

Our ability to achieve strategic objectives depends on how we react to competitive forces.

We face competition in each of our businesses. We seek to differentiate our products; however, many of them are competing in commodity-type

markets. Accordingly, failure to manage our costs as well as our operational performance could result in a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition. We also compete with state-owned oil and gas entities with vast access to financial resources. State-owned entities could be motivated by political or other factors in making their business decisions. Accordingly, when bidding on new leases or projects, we could find ourselves at a competitive disadvantage as these state-owned entities may not require a competitive return. If we are unable to obtain competitive returns when bidding on new leases or projects, it could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Strategy and outlook” on page 10.

We seek to execute divestments in the pursuit of our strategy. We may not be able to successfully divest these assets in line with our strategy.

We may not be able to successfully divest assets at acceptable prices or within the timeline envisaged due to market conditions or credit risk, resulting in increased pressure on our cash position and potential impairments. Additionally, in some cases, we have retained certain liabilities following a divestment.  Moreover, even in cases where we have not expressly retained certain liabilities, we may be held liable for past acts, failures to act or liabilities that are different from those foreseen. We may also face liabilities if a purchaser fails to honour its commitments. Accordingly, if we are unable to divest assets at acceptable prices or within our envisaged timeframe, this could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Strategy and outlook” on pages 10-11.

Our future hydrocarbon production depends on the delivery of large and integrated projects, as well as on our ability to replace proved oil and gas reserves.

We face numerous challenges in developing capital projects, especially those which are large and integrated. Challenges include uncertain geology, frontier conditions, the existence and availability of necessary technology and engineering resources, the availability of skilled labour, the existence of transportation infrastructure, project delays, the expiration of licences and potential cost overruns, as well as technical, fiscal, regulatory, political and other conditions. These challenges are particularly relevant in certain developing and emerging-market countries, in frontier areas and in deep-water fields, such as off the coast of Brazil. We may fail to assess or manage these and other risks properly. Such potential obstacles could impair our delivery of these projects, our ability to fulfil the value potential at the time of the project investment approval, and/or our ability to fulfil related contractual commitments. These could lead to impairments and could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

Future oil and gas production will depend on our access to new proved reserves through exploration, negotiations with governments and other owners of proved reserves and acquisitions, as well as on developing and applying new technologies and recovery processes to existing fields. Failure to replace proved reserves could result in lower future production, potentially having a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Business overview” on page 13.

[A] Natural gas volumes are converted into oil equivalent using a factor of 5,800 scf per barrel.

[A] We manage our total proved reserves base without distinguishing between proved reserves from subsidiaries and those from joint ventures and associates.

[B] Includes proved reserves associated with future production that will be consumed in operations.

[C] Natural gas volumes are converted into oil equivalent using a factor of 5,800 scf per barrel.

The estimation of proved oil and gas reserves involves subjective judgements based on available information and the application of complex rules; therefore, subsequent downward adjustments are possible.

The estimation of proved oil and gas reserves involves subjective judgements and determinations based on available geological, technical, contractual and economic information. Estimates could change because of new information from production or drilling activities, or changes in economic factors, including changes in the price of oil or gas and changes in the regulatory policies of host governments, or other events. Estimates could also be altered by acquisitions and divestments, new discoveries, and extensions of existing fields and mines, as well as the application of improved recovery techniques. Published proved oil and gas reserves estimates could also be subject to correction due to errors in the application of published rules and changes in guidance. Downward adjustments could indicate lower future production volumes and could also lead to impairment of assets. This could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Supplementary information – oil and gas (unaudited)” on page 215.

Rising climate change concerns have led and could lead to additional legal and/or regulatory measures which could result in project delays or cancellations, a decrease in demand for fossil fuels, potential litigation and additional compliance obligations.

In December 2015, 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement, which we fully support. The Paris Agreement aims to limit increases in global temperatures to well below two degrees Celsius. As a result, we expect continued and increased attention to climate change from all sectors of society. This attention has led, and we expect it to continue to lead, to additional regulations designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

We expect that a growing share of our GHG emissions will be subject to regulation, resulting in increased compliance costs and operational restrictions. If our GHG emissions rise alongside our ambitions to increase the scale of our business, our regulatory burden will increase proportionally. We also expect that GHG regulation, as well as emission reduction actions by customers, will continue to focus more on suppressing demand for fossil

fuels, either through taxes, fees, incentives to promote the sale of electric vehicles or even through the future prohibition of sales of new diesel or gasoline vehicles. This could result in lower revenue and, in the long term, potential impairment of certain assets.

Additionally, some groups are pressuring certain investors to divest their investments in fossil fuel companies. If this were to continue, it could have a material adverse effect on the price of our securities and our ability to access equity capital markets. The World Bank has also announced plans to stop financing upstream oil and gas projects in 2019. Similarly, according to press reports, other financial institutions also appear to be considering limiting their exposure to certain fossil fuel projects. Accordingly, our ability to use financing for future projects may be adversely impacted. This could also adversely impact our potential partners’ ability to finance their portion of costs, either through equity or debt.

Further, in some countries, governments, regulators, organisations and individuals have filed lawsuits seeking to hold fossil fuel companies liable for costs associated with climate change. While we believe these lawsuits to be without merit, losing any of these lawsuits could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

In addition, physical effects of climate change such as, but not limited to, rise in temperature, sea-level rise and fluctuations in water levels could adversely impact both our operations and supply chains.    

If we are unable to find economically viable, as well as publicly acceptable, solutions that reduce our GHG emissions and/or GHG intensity for new and existing projects or for the products we sell, we could experience additional costs or financial penalties, delayed or cancelled projects, and/or reduced production and reduced demand for hydrocarbons, which could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

Also, if we are unable to keep pace with society’s energy transition or we are unable to provide the desired low GHG emissions products needed to facilitate society’s energy transition, it could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Climate change and energy transition” on page 73.

Our operations expose us to social instability, criminality, civil unrest, terrorism, piracy, cyber-disruption, acts of war and risks of pandemic diseases that could have a material adverse effect on our business.

As seen in recent years in Nigeria, North Africa, the Middle East, South America and South-East Asia, social and civil unrest, both in the countries in which we operate and elsewhere, can and do affect us. Such potential developments that could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition include: acts of political or economic terrorism; acts of maritime piracy; cyber-espionage or disruptive cyber-attacks; conflicts including war and civil unrest (including disruptions by non-governmental and political organisations); and local security concerns that threaten the safe operation of our facilities, transport of our products and the well-being of our people. Pandemic diseases can also affect our operations directly and indirectly. If such risks materialise, they could result in injuries, loss of life, environmental harm and disruption to business activities, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Environment and society” on page 70.

We operate in more than 70 countries that have differing degrees of political, legal and fiscal stability. This exposes us to a wide range of political developments that could result in changes to contractual terms, laws and regulations. In addition, we and our joint arrangements and associates face the risk of litigation and disputes worldwide.

Developments in politics, laws and regulations can and do affect our operations. Potential impacts include: forced divestment of assets; expropriation of property; cancellation or forced renegotiation of contract rights; additional taxes including windfall taxes, restrictions on deductions and retroactive tax claims; antitrust claims; changes to trade compliance regulations; price controls; local content requirements; foreign exchange controls; changes to environmental regulations; changes to regulatory interpretations and enforcement; and changes to disclosure requirements. Any of these, individually or in aggregate, could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

In addition to the above risks, the United Kingdom is expected to leave the European Union (EU) in March 2019. As a result of this decision, it is possible that we may experience delays in moving our products and employees between the UK and EU. Also, additional tariffs and taxes could impact the demand for some of our products. This potential delay and reduced demand for our products, combined with the potential adverse changes in macroeconomic conditions in both the EU and UK, could have a material adverse effect on our earnings and cash flows.

From time to time, social and political factors play a role in unprecedented and unanticipated judicial outcomes that could adversely affect Shell. Non‑compliance with policies and regulations could result in regulatory investigations, litigation and, ultimately, sanctions. Certain governments and regulatory bodies have, in Shell’s opinion, exceeded their constitutional authority by: attempting unilaterally to amend or cancel existing agreements or arrangements; failing to honour existing contractual commitments; and seeking to adjudicate disputes between private litigants. Additionally, certain governments have adopted laws and regulations that could potentially conflict with other countries’ laws and regulations, potentially subjecting us to both criminal and civil sanctions. Such developments and outcomes could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on page 104.

The nature of our operations exposes us, and the communities in which we work, to a wide range of health, safety, security and environment risks.

The health, safety, security and environment (HSSE) risks to which we, and the communities in which we work, are potentially exposed cover a wide spectrum, given the geographic range, operational diversity and technical complexity of our operations. These risks include the effects of natural disasters (including weather events), earthquakes, social unrest, personal health and safety lapses, and crime. If a major risk materialises, such as an explosion or hydrocarbon spill, this could result in injuries, loss of life, environmental harm, disruption of business activities, and loss or suspension of our licence to operate or ability to bid on mineral rights. Accordingly, this would have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

Our operations are subject to extensive HSSE regulatory requirements that often change and are likely to become more stringent over time. Governments could require operators to adjust their future production plans, as has been done in the Netherlands, affecting production and costs. We could incur significant additional costs in the future due to compliance with these requirements or as a result of violations of, or liabilities under, laws and regulations, such as fines, penalties, clean-up costs and third-party claims. Therefore, HSSE risks, should they materialise, could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Environment and society” on page 66.

A further erosion of the business and operating environment in Nigeria could have a material adverse effect on us.

In our Nigerian operations, we face various risks and adverse conditions. These include: security issues surrounding the safety of our people, host communities and operations; sabotage and theft; our ability to enforce existing contractual rights; litigation; limited infrastructure; potential legislation that could increase our taxes or costs of operations; the effect of lower oil and gas prices on the government budget; and regional instability created by militant activities. Any of these risks or adverse conditions could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Upstream” on page 41.

Production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands causes earthquakes that affect local communities.

Shell and ExxonMobil are 50:50 shareholders in Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. (NAM). An important part of NAM’s gas production comes from the onshore Groningen gas field, in which EBN, a Dutch government entity, has a 40% interest and NAM a 60% interest. Since 1995, production from the Groningen field has caused earthquakes. Some of these earthquakes have caused damage to houses and other structures in the region, resulting in complaints and lawsuits from the local community. Following the Dutch cabinet’s decision to reduce NAM’s production from the Groningen field to zero by 2030, NAM’s shareholders and the Dutch State signed a heads of agreement in June 2018. This agreement supports the ramp-down of production from the Groningen field, includes measures to ensure the financial robustness of NAM, and determines the split of legal responsibilities between the Dutch government and the Groningen field partners. Shell’s proved reserves were reduced by 0.63 billion boe as a result in 2018. Additional earthquakes, lawsuits and any acceleration of the current plan to cease production from the Groningen field by 2030 could have further adverse effects on NAM and therefore could impact our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Upstream” on page 39.

Our future performance depends on the successful development and deployment of new technologies and new products.

Technology and innovation are essential to our efforts to meet the world’s energy demands in a competitive way. If we do not develop the right technology and products, do not have access to such technology and products or do not deploy these effectively, there could be a material adverse effect on the delivery of our strategy and our licence to operate. We operate in environments where advanced technologies are utilised. In developing new technologies and new products, unknown or unforeseeable technological failures or environmental and health effects

could harm our reputation and licence to operate or expose us to litigation or sanctions. The associated costs of new technology are sometimes underestimated, or delays occur. If we are unable to develop the right technologies and products in a timely and cost-effective manner, or if we develop technologies and products that adversely impact the environment or health of individuals, there could be a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Business overview” on page 14.

We are exposed to treasury and trading risks, including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, commodity price risk and credit risk. We are affected by the global macroeconomic environment as well as financial and commodity market conditions.

Our subsidiaries, joint arrangements and associates are subject to differing economic and financial market conditions around the world. Political or economic instability affects such markets.

We use debt instruments, such as bonds and commercial paper, to raise significant amounts of capital. Should our access to debt markets become more difficult, the potential impact on our liquidity could have a material adverse effect on our operations. Our financing costs could also be affected by interest rate fluctuations or any credit rating deterioration.

We are exposed to changes in currency values and to exchange controls as a result of our substantial international operations. Our reporting currency is the dollar. However, to a material extent, we hold assets and are exposed to liabilities in other currencies. Commodity trading is an important component of our Upstream, Integrated Gas and Downstream businesses and is integrated with our supply business. While we undertake some foreign exchange and commodity hedging, we do not do so for all our activities. Furthermore, even where hedging is in place, it may not function as expected.

We are exposed to credit risk; our counterparties could fail or could be unable to meet their payment and/or performance obligations under contractual arrangements. Although we do not have significant direct exposure to sovereign debt, it is possible that our partners and customers may have exposure which could impair their ability to meet their obligations. In addition, our pension plans may invest in government bonds, and therefore could be affected by a sovereign debt downgrade or other default.

If any of the risks set out above materialise, they could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Liquidity and capital resources” on page 62 and Note 19 to the “Consolidated Financial Statements” on pages 202-207.  

We have substantial pension commitments, funding of which is subject to capital market risks.

Liabilities associated with defined benefit pension plans can be significant, as can the cash funding requirement of such plans; both depend on various assumptions. Volatility in capital markets or government policies, and the resulting consequences for investment performance and interest rates, as well as changes in assumptions for mortality, retirement age or pensionable remuneration at retirement, could result in significant changes to the funding level of future liabilities. We operate a number of defined benefit pension plans and, in case of a shortfall, we could be required to make substantial cash contributions (depending on the applicable local regulations) resulting in a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Liquidity and capital resources” on page 62.

We mainly self-insure our risk exposure. We could incur significant losses from different types of risks that are not covered by insurance from third-party insurers.

Our insurance subsidiaries provide hazard insurance coverage to other Shell entities and only reinsure a portion of their risk exposures. Such reinsurance would not provide any material coverage in the event of a large-scale safety and environmental incident. Similarly, in the event of a material safety and environmental incident, there would be no material proceeds available from third-party insurance companies to meet our obligations. Therefore, we may incur significant losses from different types of risks that are not covered by insurance from third-party insurers, potentially resulting in a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate” on page 61.

An erosion of our business reputation could have a material adverse effect on our brand, our ability to secure new resources or access capital markets, and on our licence to operate.

Our reputation is an important asset. The Shell General Business Principles (Principles) govern how Shell and its individual companies conduct their affairs, and the Shell Code of Conduct instructs employees and contract staff on how to behave in line with the Principles. Our challenge is to ensure that all employees and contract staff, more than 100,000 in total, comply with the Principles and the Code of Conduct. Real or perceived failures of governance or regulatory compliance could harm our reputation. This could impact our licence to operate, damage our brand, reduce consumer demand for our branded products, harm our ability to secure new resources and contracts, and limit our ability to access capital markets and attract staff. Many other factors, including the materialisation of the risks discussed in several of the other risk factors, could negatively impact our reputation and could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on pages 96-97.

Many of our major projects and operations are conducted in joint arrangements or associates. This could reduce our degree of control, as well as our ability to identify and manage risks.

In cases where we are not the operator, we have limited influence over, and control of, the behaviour, performance and costs of operation of such joint arrangements or associates. Despite not having control, we could still be exposed to the risks associated with these operations, including reputational, litigation (where joint and several liability could apply) and government sanction risks. For example, our partners or members of a joint arrangement or an associate (particularly local partners in developing countries) may not be able to meet their financial or other obligations to the projects, threatening the viability of a given project. Where we are the operator of a joint arrangement, the other partner(s) could still be able to veto or block certain decisions, which could be to our overall detriment. Accordingly, where we have limited influence, we are exposed to operational risks that could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on page 104.

We rely heavily on information technology systems for our operations.

The operation of many of our business processes depends on reliable information technology (IT) systems. Our IT systems are increasingly dependent on key contractors supporting the delivery of IT services, and continue to expand in terms of the number of systems. Shell, like many other multinational companies, is the target of attempts to gain unauthorised access to our IT systems and our data through various channels, including more sophisticated and coordinated attempts often referred to as advanced persistent threats. While our IT systems have been breached in the past, we believe that to date, no significant breach has occurred. Timely detection is becoming increasingly complex but we seek to detect and investigate all such security incidents, aiming to prevent their recurrence. Disruption of critical IT services, or breaches of information security, could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate” on page 61.

Violations of antitrust and competition laws carry fines and expose us and/or our employees to criminal sanctions and civil suits.

Antitrust and competition laws apply to Shell and its joint ventures and associates in the vast majority of countries in which we do business. Shell and its joint ventures and associates have been fined for violations of antitrust and competition laws in the past. These include a number of fines by the European Commission Directorate-General for Competition (DG COMP). Due to DG COMP’s fining guidelines, any future conviction of Shell or any of its joint ventures or associates for violation of EU competition law could result in significantly larger fines and have a material adverse effect on us. Violation of antitrust laws is a criminal offence in many countries, and individuals can be imprisoned or fined. In certain circumstances, directors may receive director disqualification orders. Furthermore, it is now common for persons or corporations allegedly injured by antitrust violations to sue for damages. Any violation of these laws can harm our reputation and could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on pages 96-97.

Violations of anti-bribery, tax-evasion and anti-money laundering laws carry fines and expose us and/or our employees to criminal sanctions, civil suits and ancillary consequences (such as debarment and the revocation of licences).

Anti-bribery, tax-evasion and anti-money laundering laws apply to Shell, its joint ventures and associates in all countries in which we do business. Shell and its joint ventures and associates in the past have been fined for violations of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Any violation of anti-bribery, tax-evasion or anti-money laundering laws, including those potential violations associated with Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Ltd.’s (SNEPCO’s) investment in Nigerian oil block OPL 245 and the 2011 settlement of litigation pertaining to that block, could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.  

See “Our people” on pages 79-81, “Corporate governance” on pages 96-97 and Note 25 to the “Consolidated Financial Statements” on pages 211-213.

Violations of data protection laws carry fines and expose us and/or our employees to criminal sanctions and civil suits.

Data protection laws apply to Shell and its joint ventures and associates in the vast majority of countries in which we do business. Most of the countries we operate in have data protection laws and regulations. Additionally, the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) came into effect in May 2018, which increased penalties up to a maximum of 4% of global annual turnover for breach of the regulation. The GDPR requires mandatory breach notification, the standard for which is also followed outside the EU (particularly in Asia). Non-compliance with data protection laws could expose us to regulatory investigations, which could result in fines and penalties as well as harm our reputation. In addition to imposing fines, regulators may also issue orders to stop processing personal data, which could disrupt operations. We could also be subject to litigation from persons or corporations allegedly affected by data protection violations. Violation of data protection laws is a criminal offence in some countries, and individuals can be imprisoned or fined. Any violation of these laws or harm to our reputation could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on pages 96-97.

Violations of trade compliance laws and regulations, including sanctions, carry fines and expose us and our employees to criminal sanctions and civil suits.

We use “trade compliance” as an umbrella term for various national and international laws designed to regulate the movement of items across national boundaries and restrict or prohibit trade and other dealings with certain parties. The number and breadth of such laws continue to expand. For example, the EU and the USA continue to impose restrictions and prohibitions on certain transactions involving Syria. In addition, the USA continues to have comprehensive sanctions in place against Iran, while the EU and other nations continue to maintain targeted sanctions. Additional restrictions and controls directed at defined oil and gas activities in Russia, which were imposed by the EU and the USA in 2014, are still in force. Further restrictions regarding Russia were introduced by the USA in 2017 and expanded in 2018. Both the EU and the USA introduced sectorial sanctions against Venezuela in 2017, which the USA expanded in 2018 and 2019. The US sanctions primarily target the government of Venezuela and the oil industry. In addition to the significant trade-control programmes

administered by the EU and the USA, many other nations are also adopting such programmes. This expansion of sanctions, including the frequent additions of prohibited parties, combined with the number of markets in which we operate and the large number of transactions we process, makes ensuring compliance with all sanctions complex and at times challenging. Any violation of one or more of these regimes could lead to loss of import or export privileges, significant penalties on or prosecution of Shell or its employees, and could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.

See “Corporate governance” on pages 96-97.

Investors should also consider the following, which could limit shareholder remedies.

The Company’s Articles of Association determine the jurisdiction for shareholder disputes. This could limit shareholder remedies.

Our Articles of Association generally require that all disputes between our shareholders in such capacity and the Company or our subsidiaries (or our Directors or former Directors), or between the Company and our Directors or former Directors, be exclusively resolved by arbitration in The Hague, the Netherlands, under the Rules of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce. Our Articles of Association also provide that, if this provision is to be determined invalid or unenforceable for any reason, the dispute could only be brought before the courts of England and Wales. Accordingly, the ability of shareholders to obtain monetary or other relief, including in respect of securities law claims, could be determined in accordance with these provisions.

We maintain a large business portfolio across an integrated value chain and are exposed to crude oil, natural gas, oil product and chemical prices (see “Risk factors” on page 15). This diversified portfolio helps us mitigate the impact of price volatility. Our annual planning cycle and periodic portfolio reviews aim to ensure that our levels of capital investment and operating expenses are appropriate in the context of a volatile price environment. We test the resilience of our projects and other opportunities against a range of crude oil, natural gas, oil product and chemical prices and costs. We also aim to maintain a strong balance sheet to provide resilience against weak market prices.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

One of the key drivers of oil, natural gas and oil product demand growth is economic growth. According to the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2019, global economic growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7%, 0.1% lower than in 2017. Economic growth moderated in some large advanced economies in the second half of the year, after strong growth in 2017, while the group of emerging-market economies continued to expand at broadly the same pace as in 2017.

According to the IMF’s latest estimate, economic growth accelerated in the USA to 2.9% in 2018 from 2.2% in 2017, with private sector activity partly supported by sizable tax cuts and higher defense expenditures. But growth slowed in the eurozone and in the United Kingdom due to weaker export growth, higher energy prices and increased political uncertainty, such as the prospect of the UK leaving the European Union (Brexit). Growth in emerging-market economies showed a divergent picture. In China, growth slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to an estimated 6.6% in 2018, due to weaker credit growth and additional US tariffs on imports from China. Argentina and Turkey slid into recession as financial conditions deteriorated and investors became increasingly concerned about financial risks and political uncertainty. In contrast, economic recovery continued in Brazil and India. Higher oil and gas prices lifted growth among fuel-exporting economies, such as some in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Nigeria), the Middle East and Russia.

For 2019, the IMF expects the weaker economic conditions seen towards the end of 2018 to continue as many countries face headwinds from rising trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and tightening financing conditions.

GLOBAL Prices, DEMAND AND SUPPLY

The following table provides an overview of the main crude oil and natural gas price markers that we are exposed to:

[A] Yearly average prices are based on daily spot prices. The 2018 average price for Japan Customs-cleared Crude excludes December data.

CRUDE OIL

Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, traded between $51 per barrel (/b) and $86/b in 2018, ending the year at the lower price of $51/b. It averaged $71/b for the year, $17/b higher than in 2017, and $27/b higher than in 2016 when the average price was at its lowest average level since 2004.

On a yearly average basis, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded at a $6/b discount to Brent in 2018, compared with $3/b in 2017. The discount widened from 2017, reflecting constrained pipeline capacity from the landlocked Cushing storage hub to the US Gulf Coast. US oil exports increased from 2017, which helped to limit further widening of the price differential.

Reflecting the economic conditions described above, global oil demand grew by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), or 1.2%, to 99.2 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil Market Report published in January 2019 (Oil Market Report). This growth was driven by emerging economies, where demand grew by 0.9 million b/d. In advanced economies, demand grew by 0.3 million b/d. Oil demand growth in 2018 was 0.4 million b/d lower than in 2017, when it rose by 1.6 million b/d.

Oil supply in 2018 is estimated in the Oil Market Report at 99.9 million b/d, an increase of 2.5 million b/d compared with 2017. Because growth in oil supply outpaced growth in demand, the trend of falling global crude oil and oil products inventory levels, which started in mid-2016, began to reverse in the middle of 2018. Average commercial inventory levels for OECD countries in November 2018 were estimated at 2,850 million barrels in the Oil Market Report, around 50 million barrels less than in November 2017 and about 150 million barrels above the year average levels seen in 2014 when the Brent price was around $100/b before starting to fall in late 2014.

Due to falling inventory levels, oil prices strengthened to a peak of $86/b in October 2018. Oil prices fell in November to below $60/b, driven by market expectations of higher supply growth and lower demand growth. The outlook for supply growth became more bullish due to the US government waiving some export sanctions on Iran and record production levels in the USA and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the outlook for demand growth weakened as macroeconomic indicators deteriorated.

On the non-OPEC supply side, the US Energy Information Administration reported another year of supply growth. US production is estimated to have averaged 10.8 million b/d in 2018, 1.4 million b/d higher than in 2017, and 2.0 million b/d higher than in 2016. Like 2017, higher oil prices in 2018 reflected an attractive environment for US production to grow and for drilling activity to increase, as indicated by a higher onshore oil rig count for the year. Production from other non-OPEC countries increased by 1.2 million b/d in 2018 and averaged 56.6 million b/d.

To support oil prices, OPEC members agreed in November 2017 to extend an agreement to reduce overall production by 1.2 million b/d, relative to production levels in October 2016. In December 2018, in response to a 40% fall in oil prices from the peak levels seen in October, OPEC and other non-OPEC resource holders, most notably Russia, agreed to reduce production by 1.2 million b/d from October levels. OPEC production averaged 32.5 million b/d in 2018, a similar level to 2017 and about 0.5 million b/d less than in 2016.